Weather Forecast  2024

After successfully reporting the daily localized heat index, VSU will release a five-day weather forecast on its official website and social media pages starting tomorrow, May 15, 2024.

Following the workshop on forecasting the weather on May 10, 2024, the Head of the Department of Meteorology (DMet), Mr. Charlie S. Andan trained the staff of the University Integrated Media Center (UIMC) on how to use the Windy app, considered as the most reliable weather forecasting tool in the world based in Europe.

The Windy app can provide information about the wind, rain, temperature, clouds, waves, rain accumulation, thunderstorms, concentration of particulate matter, altitude, radar, and satellite images.

Mr. Andan discussed with the UIMC team how to integrate the information provided in the Windy app using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and complimented with the reports from the Department of Science and Technology - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (DOST-PAGASA).

The ECMWF weather forecast model is currently the most trusted tool to track the weather in any part of the world. This model provides a 12-hour update and uses altitude in the forecast or the influence of terrain on the weather (nonhydrostatic weather model).

The DMet Head explained to the group that short-term forecasts commit less error compared to long-term estimates for changes in atmospheric conditions can alter the accuracy of the prediction.

“Short-term forecasts (up to a few days) typically have higher predictability limits than long-term forecasts (weeks or months) due to the exponential growth of errors over time. This is because small perturbations in the initial conditions can amplify significantly over longer periods, making it increasingly difficult to predict the future state of the atmosphere accurately,” Mr. Andan shared.

The UIMC team and Mr. Andan decided to provide weekly localized weather forecasts on the slider of the VSU website and a daily forecast on social media to give timely updates and more accurate weather predictions.

After the traumatizing experience of Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) that hit the province of Leyte in 2023, it is vital to improve the disaster risks of the communities. This improved weather reporting will help the Viscan community and its neighboring communities to prepare in case weather-related disturbances are coming.

“A detailed understanding of local weather and climate phenomena is crucial to effectively manage the risk and adapt to the changing weather pattern,” he said.

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